Does the exact reuse of historical return series really provide a sufficient understanding of the risks on the path to financial independence or are Monte Carlo simulations better suited for this? Analyses can now be saved in bookmarks and easily shared.

Are inflations-indexed TIPS bonds with their currently high yields a useful add-on to a stock heavy retirement portfolio? And how can I get a quick overview about different asset allocations?

An equal-weighted Commodity Index serves as Inflation Fledge and can be extremely useful for Risk-Adjusted Portfolios.

If you have always wanted to know whether factor ETFs or a golden butterfly portfolio allow for earlier financial independence or higher withdrawal rates in retirement, you can now calculate this yourself in the new version 0.4 of the FI Simulator.

The German hyperinflation occurred exactly 100 years ago. No other event has probably had such a lasting impact on German society’s relationship with money as this event. In this article I would like to take a closer look at the impact of such Black Swans on our calculations for financial independence.

Interest Rates are rising fast. So it’s about time for a new version of the FI Simulator that is able to handle bonds as well. I will present all the new functions in detail in the next weeks. Here is already a brief list of new functions and changes.

A few months ago I discovered a great book from 1993 by Gregor Gielen. In this book the author describes a historical performance index of the German stock market since 1870(!). I have updated this index with current data of the CDAX as well as German inflation data until today and integrated it into the simulator.

Today, in another virtual case study, I would like to show how withdrawal rates can be determined that preserve the initial capital. Such a calculation is useful, for example, when one wants to protect assets over generations.

Ben turned 55 this year and has been considering retirement for some time. He has already saved up a nice stock portfolio during his working life, currently worth 500,000€, and is also entitled to a pension. More importantly, however, he has a large life insurance policy that will bring him a payout of a round million $ on his 65th birthday in January 2032.

I have received a lot of feedback about the first version of the simulator, thanks a lot for that! Some of it has already been incorporated into the new version, which is live since today. Here is a first compact overview of all new features

Ana has just turned 25 and successfully finished her college degree a few weeks ago. She is now starting her first real job as a project manager in a large corporation. Ana is a little bit concerned about how to provide sensibly for the future and therefore wants to invest part of her salary in a broadly diversified stock ETF from the very beginning.

Welcome to Predict-FI.com After a somewhat lenghty preparation phase I would like to announce today the “official” start of Predict-FI.com. As the name suggests, just another page that deals with calculations around financial independence. This means we will cover topics like Safe Withdrawal Rates, Sequence-Of-Return-Risks, Inflation-Effects, etc. In contrast to many other similar …